Dear Ahab, I’ve been reading a lot about how the incoming U.S. trade policy is going to make shipping more expensive, but I just don’t see the “disaster scenario” everyone else seems to, especially in the first quarter of 2025. What am I missing?
– Duty Devoted
Dear Duty Devoted: If you look at the first Trump presidency, the tariffs took between 6 and 12 months to roll out. If the incoming administration begins the process of enacting tariffs on its first day, the new tariffs will take effect between July 2025 and January 2026. Then you have to consider that, once these tariffs are enacted, it takes 60-90 days for the market to adjust to them. If we take into consideration volumes shipped during the first Trump presidency, there wasn’t a significant drop in volume coming into the U.S. post-tariffs.
On top of the tariffs, there’s another ILA strike on the horizon in January. That strike will likely cause some congestion at U.S. ports, like the last ILA strike did. Complicating matters further is the fact that U.S. importers are going to be frontloading cargo for the first half of 2025 in efforts to avoid the impending tariffs. Even with all of these hurdles, there’s opportunity for those of us shipping into the United States. If you work with the right logistics team, they’ll get your cargo to its final destination. Even if your business has some new hindrances in the first half of 2025, you’ll be successful if you play your cards right.
Dear Ahab, I’ve been reading in the news that the incoming administration plans to impose tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China after inauguration day. What will these tariffs mean for my business?
– Tom Tariffic
Dear Tom: If you’re importing automobiles from Mexico or lumber from Canada, for example, your import costs will go up in the short term. Not only has a 25% tariff been discussed as a starting point, but that tariff could get higher on certain cargo. For example a 100% tariff was imposed on Chinese electric vehicles earlier this year, and it is possible that those tariffs could be increased up to 200% on cars imported from Mexico. With the USMCA sunsetting in 2026, there’s a good chance the North American trade changes and evolves beyond the tariffs we’re talking about right now.
With all of these duties coming into effect and trade agreements shuffling about, the next couple of years will be hectic. The best way to put your mind at ease in the face of all of this is simple: Find a good customs broker. It never hurts to have an expert in your corner, and a customs broker has the knowledge to plan your supply chain around whatever tariffs come your way. They can also serve as your advocate on customs brokerage matters, and ensure that your supply chain is flexible, adaptable and efficient. In short, you’ll never have to worry about a tariff or some paper work causing your cargo to be held up at the border. Get ahead of the curve, find that broker now, and build the relationship before you need it!
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